Who will win the Manchester derby?

It seems like only a few days ago that we were celebrating the winners of the PL and the FA Cup, yet the new football season is already upon us. After a summer of international tournaments, the clubs are now back in action, the pre-season tours are coming to an end and friendlies have been aplenty.

Now though, it is time for the serious stuff to start again as we kick off another season in England. The season will start the way the last one ended, with a battle between the two Manchester clubs as the Community Shield will be another battle between Man Utd and Man City. The previous meeting back in May was a surprise 2-1 win for United, a result that not many expected and one that probably saved manager Erik Ten Hag’s job.

Could Man City’s Community Shield problems continue?

This time around the prize is less prestigious than the FA Cup, with most regarding the Community Shield as not much more than a glorified friendly. However, with these two teams taking to the field, it is unlikely that either manager will view it as a friendly and will want to put down a marker. City will want to reassert their superiority over their neighbours whereas United will be hoping to add another piece of silverware to their cabinet and show that the FA Cup win wasn’t a fluke result. For some reason, Manchester City have struggled to win this competition in recent years, winning just six of their fifteen appearances in the fixture. No side has lost four Community Shields in a row since Manchester United between the years 1998 and 2001 but that is what City are facing should they fail to get the better of United this time around. 

Man Utd – What to expect

Manchester United have a good Community Shield record overall, with twenty-one wins and nine defeats. However, as a sign of their lean few years, this will be their first appearance since 2016 when Jose Mourinho was in charge. They are on a good sequence of wins though, having won their last four appearances in the season opener, with a 3-2 win over City in 2011 included in that sequence. The knives were out for United manager Erik Ten Hag at the end of last season, with their poor overall showing and disappointing end to the season meaning they ended in a lowly eighth place. The FA Cup win not only ensured two trophies in two seasons for the Dutchman but also ensured European football this season and placated owners and fans. Pre-season hasn’t been the best for the Red Devils though and injury worries once again are a feature going into the new season. Leny Yoro and Rasmus Højlund are players who will definitely miss out on this match but there are hopes that Mason Mount might be able to have a consistent run in the team and Jadon Sancho has been reintegrated into the squad. 

Man City – What to expect

Manchester City had a positive end to their pre-season with a 4-2 win over Chelsea and they will be hoping for a change in fortune in this fixture. They have sold Julian Alvarez so might be a bit light on striker options but they have reinvested that money in a number of young players. Uncertainty surrounds a few of their elder players, with the likes of Kevin de Bruyne and Ederson rumoured to be wanting to leave the club for new adventures. Manager Pep Guardiola has stated that this is to be his last season at Manchester City so he will surely want to go out on a high and get his hands on as many trophies as possible, starting with this one. 

Final Thoughts

Four of the last seven Community Shield matches were decided on penalties and given the intense rivalry between these two that is a possibility once again. Marcus Rashford is a player who has a point to prove this season and he might be asked to start up front in this match having missed out on the big tournament for England in the summer, with Jack Grealish being another player with a point to prove.  It remains to be seen how many players that were involved in the latter stages of this summer’s international tournament will be involved in this fixture. 

Manchester United have won three of the last ten meetings whereas City have won the other seven, so recent dominance is clearly with the blue team. There have been no draws in the last ten encounters, the last one coming in December 2020 in a league match at Old Trafford. 

Understandably, Manchester City are favourites to win, although not as short a price as they were in the FA Cup final back in May and we all know what happened there. 

Last updated: 08.08.24