We’ve taken a closer look at this year’s Copa Libertadores and predicted the outcome!
Copa Libertadores 2023 Forecasts
The 2023 Copa Libertadores is the 64th edition of South American football’s premier competition. Thirty-two teams are currently battling to be crowned kings of the continent, with some of the biggest teams in the South American confederation taking part.
In this article we have taken a detailed look at what lies ahead in this year’s tournament. We have also considered the recent history of the Libertadores, before undertaking the difficult task of predicting how the 2023 competition will play out.
Teams Participating in the 2023 Libertadores
As mentioned above, 32 sides are taking part in the 2023 Copa Libertadores. Twenty-seven teams qualified for the group stage via their performance in their domestic leagues, while Independiente del Valle secured their spot courtesy of their victory in last year’s Copa Sudamericana, South America’s secondary club competition.
A further four sides – Cerro Porteno of Paraguay, Atletico Mineiro of Brazil, Sporting Cristal of Peru and Independiente Medellin of Colombia – will take part in the group stage after they came through the qualifying process.
Brazil has supplied the most teams in the group stage with seven: the aforementioned Atletico Mineiro, as well as Flamengo, Palmeiras, Corinthians, Fluminense, Athletico Paranaense and Internacional.
Argentina has provided five clubs, Uruguay has two representatives, and Colombia has three. Three teams are also flying the flag for Paraguay, Peru, and Ecuador. As well as two apiece for Venezuela, Bolivia, and Chile.
Chilean football fans will be cheering on Colo-Colo and Nublense at this year’s Libertadores. Colo-Colo are former champions and will be targeting a place in the round of 16, but Nublense could find things difficult at the top of South American football.
How Did the Draw for the Libertadores Groups Turn Out?
The draw for the 2023 Copa Libertadores was held in March at the the South American Football Confederation’s headquarters in Luque, Paraguay. The 32 teams were split into four pots based on their club ranking, and one team from each pot was drawn into every group.
Clubs from the same country are not permitted to face each other in the group phase, with one exception: the four sides that booked their place in the tournament via the qualifying rounds. As such, Brazilian pair Athletico Paranaense and Atletico Mineiro will go head-to-head in Group G.
The top two in each group will advance to the knockout phase. The third-place finishers will drop into the Copa Sudamericana, South America’s secondary tournament, while the teams that finish bottom will be eliminated from continental competition.
| Group A | Group B | Group C | Group D |
| Racing Club (Argentina) | Nacional (Uruguay) | Bolivar (Bolivia) | Fluminense (Brazil) |
| Aucas (Ecuador) | Internacional (Brazil) | Cerro Porteno (Paraguay) | The Strongest (Bolivia) |
| Flamengo (Brazil) | Independiente Medellin (Colombia) | Barcelona (Ecuador) | River Plate (Argentina) |
| Nublense (Chile) | Metropolitanos (Venezuela) | Palmeiras (Brazil) | Sporting Cristal (Peru) |
| Group E | Group F | Group G | Group H |
| Corinthians (Brazil) | Colo-Colo (Chile) | Libertad (Paraguay) | Atletico Nacional (Colombia) |
| Argentinos Juniors (Argentina) | Deportivo Pereira (Colombia) | Athletico Paranaense (Brazil) | Olimpia (Paraguay) |
| Independiente del Valle (Ecuador) | Boca Juniors (Argentina) | Alianza Lima (Peru) | Melgar (Peru) |
| Liverpool (Uruguay) | Monagas (Venezuela) | Atletico Mineiro (Brazil) | Patronato (Argentina) |
Who Was the Last Libertadores Champion?
The 2022 Copa Libertadores was won by Flamengo. It was their third triumph of all time following prior victories in 1981 and 2019, and made them the joint-sixth most successful side in the history of the competition.
Flamengo amassed 16 points out of a possible 18 in the group phase, finishing in first place ahead of Talleres, Universidad Catolica and Sporting Cristal. Despite that achievement the Brazilian club changed their manager ahead of the knockout phase, as Dorival Junior replaced Paulo Sousa after the Portuguese had spent just six months in the job.
Flamengo proceeded to trash Colombian outfit Deportes Tolima 8-1 on aggregate in the round of 16, before they eased past Corinthians 3-0 over two legs in the quarter-finals. A 6-1 aggregate triumph over Velez Sarsfield saw Flamengo safely through to the final, where they overcame Athletico Paranaense 1-0 thanks to a goal from Gabriel Barbosa on the stroke of half-time.
Athletico Paranaense, another Brazilian club, were only runners-up in Group B, finishing below Libertad on goal difference. Nevertheless, they reached the final thanks to victories over Libertad (3-2), Estudiantes (1-0) and Palmeiras (3-2) in the knockout rounds.
Key Statistics of the Champions in the Last 5 Years of the Libertadores
| Year | Champion and Country | Matches Played | Top Scorer | Losses | Club World Cup |
| 2022 | Flamengo (Brazil) | 13 | Pedro (Flamengo), 12 | 0 | Third Place |
| 2021 | Palmeiras (Brazil) | 13 | Gabriel Barbosa (Flamengo), 11 | 1 | Runners-up |
| 2020 | Palmeiras (Brazil) | 13 | Fidel Martinez (Barcelona), 11 | 1 | Fourth Place |
| 2019 | Flamengo (Brazil) | 13 | Gabriel Barbosa (Flamengo), 9 | 3 | Runners-up |
| 2018 | River Plate (Argentina) | 14 | Miguel Borja (Palmeiras) and Wilson Morelo (Santa Fe), 9 | 1 | Third Place |
Favourite Teams to Win This Year’s Libertadores
Having consulted the latest betting odds, the following five teams are the favourites to win the 2023 CONMEBOL Libertadores.
We have taken a closer look at each side and analysed their chances of going all the way in this year’s tournament, which will conclude with the final in November at the iconic Maracana in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Flamengo
Flamengo have been one of the strongest sides in the South American game in recent years. Copa Libertadores winners in 2019 and 2022, they head into this season’s tournament as the outright favourites to come out on top for what would be a fourth time.
Vitor Pereira is now the man at the helm of the reigning champions after Dorival Junior’s contract was not renewed. He has an exceptionally talented squad at his disposal, including the 2022 Copa Libertadores top scorer Pedro, the legendary Chilean midfielder Arturo Vidal, and Gabriel Barbosa, one of the most gifted players in the South American game.
Indeed, Flamengo have largely managed to keep their squad from last season intact, which should serve them well in the months ahead.
The holders did suffer a shock defeat by Aucas in the first round of matches in the group phase, but that was almost certainly a one-off. We should expect Flamengo to be there or thereabouts in the race for continental glory in 2023.
River Plate
Argentina won THE big one in December and their clubs will be hoping to triumph in the first Copa Libertadores since the national team’s long-awaited success. Boca Junior fans might not like it, but their arch-rivals River Plate are the leading contenders out of Buenos Aires this time around.
That is despite the fact that Boca won the Argentine title last time out. Yet despite that domestic success, the Xeneizes have struggled to make their mark in South America over the last few campaigns. Indeed, in both 2021 and 2022 Boca were eliminated in the round of 16.
River, on the other hand, have reached two finals and a semi-final since 2018. The key question mark surrounding them this season is how they will get on without Marcelo Gallardo, their excellent manager who stepped down in 2022 after eight years in charge.
River, who recently expanded their stadium to make El Monumental the biggest on the continent, are now coached by Martin Demichelis.
Palmeiras
Winners in 2020 and 2021, Palmeiras are another side with considerable pedigree in the Copa Libertadores. Like Flamengo and River Plate, they are among the sportsbooks’ favourites to go all the way this season, with their experience likely to stand them in good stead.
Palmeiras are the reigning Brazilian champions. They won Serie A pretty comfortably last time out, finishing eight points clear of second-placed Internacional. Palmeiras lost only three of their 38 encounters, which shows they are a tough team to get the better of.
Abel Ferreira has one of the strongest squads in South America to work with, despite recently losing Gustavo Scarpa and Danilo to Premier League side Nottingham Forest.
Regular departures are a fact of life on this continent, though, so the exit of that duo should not prove too disruptive.
Atletico Mineiro
Atletico Mineiro had to come through the qualifying rounds in order to secure passage to the group phase, but that does not mean they are not among the leading candidates to win the 2023 Copa Libertadores.
It is certainly true that Atletico were disappointed with their seventh-place finish in Serie A last term. A failure to end the campaign in the top six meant they were not guaranteed a place in the group stage, but no one truly expected Galo to miss out.
Eduardo Coudet has recent managerial experience in Europe, having been in charge of Celta Vigo in Spain as recently as last year. Chilean forward Eduardo Vargas is part of a gifted frontline which also includes Paulinho, who is on loan at Atletico from German side Bayer Leverkusen.
Quarter-finalists in 2022 and semi-finalists the year before, the club from Minas Gerais in the southeast of Brazil will be looking to go one better this term.
Corinthians
Corinthians are yet another Brazilian outfit with designs on the trophy. They have won the Libertadores just once before, triumphing in 2012 thanks to a triumph over Boca Juniors in the final, and their supporters will believe a second crown is long overdue.
Fernando Lazaro is embarking on his first full-time managerial job. The 41-year-old is well regarded in Brazil, but that country hires and fires coaches on a regular basis, so Lazaro will need to hit the ground running both at home and on the continent.
Roger Guedes has hit the ground running at the start of the season, and the 26-year-old attacker could be one to watch in the Libertadores. Corinthians reached the quarter-finals in 2022, when they were beaten by eventual winners Flamengo.
NordicBet Prediction for the 2023 Copa Libertadores
We have decided to make a comprehensive prediction for the 2023 Copa Libertadores. First, we have forecast which teams will qualify for the knockout phase, then we have simulated what that phase of the tournament could look like. Please bear in mind that this is only a prediction based on our opinion and analysis, and it should not be taken too seriously!
Group Stage Prediction
| Group A | Group B | Group C | Group D |
| 1. Flamengo | 1. Nacional | 1. Palmeiras | 1. River Plate |
| 2. Racing Club | 2. Internacional | 2. Cerro Porteno | 2. Fluminense |
| 3. Aucas | 3. Independiente Medellin | 3. Bolivar | 3. The Strongest |
| 4. Nublense | 4. Metropolitanos | 4. Barcelona | 4. Sporting Cristal |
| Group E | Group F | Group G | Group H |
| 1. Corinthians | 1. Boca Juniors | 1. Atletico Mineiro | 1. Olimpia |
| 2. Independiente del Valle | 2. Colo-Colo | 2. Libertad | 2. Atletico Nacional |
| 3. Argentinos Juniors | 3. Deportivo Pereira | 3. Athletico Paranaense | 3. Patronato |
| 4. Liverpool | 4. Monagas | 4. Alianza Lima | 4. Melgar |
Round of 16 Prediction
Draws for the round of 16, quarter-finals and semi-finals will be held at a later date, with group winners facing group runners-up in the first knockout round. We used an online simulator to produce the ties below.
| Round of 16 Tie | Predicted Winner |
| Boca Juniors vs Atletico Nacional | Boca Juniors |
| Atletico Mineiro vs Racing Club | Atletico Mineiro |
| Nacional vs Independiente del Valle | Independiente del Valle |
| Palmeiras vs Fluminense | Palmeiras |
| Flamengo vs Libertad | Flamengo |
| River Plate vs Internacional | River Plate |
| Corinthians vs Colo-Colo | Corinthians |
| Olimpia vs Cerro Porteno | Cerro Porteno |
Quarter-Final Prediction
| Quarter-Final Tie | Predicted Winner |
| Flamengo vs Corinthians | Flamengo |
| Cerro Porteno vs Palmeiras | Palmeiras |
| Boca Juniors vs Atletico Mineiro | Atletico Mineiro |
| River Plate vs Independiente del Valle | River Plate |
Semi-Final Prediction
| Round of 16 Tie | Predicted Winner |
| Palmeiras vs River Plate | Palmeiras |
| Flamengo vs Atletico Mineiro | Flamengo |
Final Prediction
| Final | Predicted Winner |
| Palmeiras vs Flamengo | Palmeiras |
