An upset in the European Super Cup?

The first piece of European silverware is up for grabs on Wednesday evening in Warsaw as the Super Cup pits the winner of last season’s CL, Real Madrid, against the winners of the EL, Atalanta.

It feels like only yesterday that we witnessed these two teams lift these prestigious trophies. Real Madrid will play in this match as they got the better of Dortmund in the CL final and Atalanta pulled off a surprise win over Bayer Leverkusen in the final of the EL. These two teams have only met twice before with the Spanish giants winning on both occasions, back in 2021.

What can we expect from Real Madrid?

Real Madrid are currently the joint most successful side in this competition, winning five Super Cups along with AC Milan and Barcelona, so a win here would put them out on their own with six wins. They will without a doubt be big favourites to win this match, they have won five of their previous eight Super Cups. If their players are fit and firing to go and in the form they were in last season it would be difficult to give many other teams a chance. Real Madrid have not lost a competitive game since they were eliminated from the Copa del Rey back in January by city rivals Atletico Madrid. That run includes 18 wins and 8 draws. It is always tricky to draw too much information from pre-season, Real Madrid won two and lost two of their four matches with the final one being a 2-1 win over Chelsea. The league season in Spain starts the following weekend, so this will effectively serve as a final pre-season match for the Spanish giants before they kick off their league campaign with an away trip to Mallorca. 

Can Atalanta upset the Spanish champions?

Atalanta will not be intimidated by facing a more fancied opponent, they have shown they are more than capable of beating an opponent that is viewed as being more illustrious than them. They had another good league season last year and added the EL trophy to their cabinet. The team from Bergamo have only two major honours in their trophy cabinet, last season’s cup win ended a 61 year wait for some silverware. They would desperately love to add another win to that and they will feel that this match offers them a decent opportunity as no one quite knows how prepared either team are likely to be since the season hasn’t actually started. Atalanta will be the 41st different team to play in the European Super Cup and this is the fourth year in a row that there is a debutant team involved in the match. Atalanta’s pre-season going into this match has not been great as they lost against German side St. Pauli and Parma and managed a draw against AZ Alkmaar. They will get one day’s extra rest after this match as their opening Serie A match will take place on Monday and they are also away from home, playing at Lecce. 

Final Thoughts

The Spanish giants are understandably favourites to win this match, given a 1.51 chance of winning in normal time whereas Atalanta are only being given an 6.20 chance of success. Given the fact that the CL holders have won ten of the last eleven editions of the Super Cup, it really is hard to look beyond a Real Madrid win. Kylian Mbappe is likely to make his debut in the white of Real so he is certainly one to keep an eye on and for Atalanta, Ademola Lookman certainly showed that he enjoys the big occasion with his hat trick in the EL final against Bayer Leverkusen.

Hopefully, this will be an entertaining encounter to whet our appetites for what is to come at the weekend as the Spanish, Italian and other leagues kick things off with the first round of fixtures.

PS: Odds might have changed since the writing and publication of this article.

Last updated: 14.08.24